Putin has all the “agency” imaginable here.
He wants to bomb big, and Ukraine is the live demonstration board. I think Putin, who has clearly built up a volcano’s worth of grievances, understood Biden’s feckless inertia as an active fuck you, and Putin was clearly waiting for just that. It’s true that the US and NATO are big partners in this nightmare they’ve done all they could to provoke a crisis assuming they could slowly creep and bleed it out, and when the Kremlin gave extra- serious signals last year that something big would happen, Biden responded with the same feckless diplomacy and distracted attention that’s characterized his Admin’s zombified domestic political program, whatever’s left of it anyway. God knows I don’t want to absolve Putin in any way here. The Kagan Clan and the Atlantic Council get paid for being wrong, but I suspect they’ll get extra bonuses from their sponsors for getting something right for once (and for helping catalyze the current shitshow by designing Biden’s hawkish Ukraine policy a year ago, which we’ve gone over).
Tableflip with freinds code#
Normally I’d take that as the final proof that Putin was about to do the very opposite of what Kagan predicted-if Kagan predicts invasion, experience says it really means Putin is about to quit the Kremlin to join Code Pink. There’s Robert Kagan, Vicky Nuland’s husband, who just published a big piece a couple of days ago in the WaPo about the impending mass invasion. This time it’s the very worst ghouls who got it right for once in their sleazy careers, after getting everything wrong without fail since the start of the century. One of the administrators is Mark Ames, who has posted the following today: One Facebook group I read is “Radio War Nerd”, a follow-on from the very entertaining and insightful War Nerd columns written over the years by “Gary Brecher”. There were many ways to accomplish Russian objectives this is a poor one, possibly the worst course they could try.Īnd now that the table has been flipped and the pieces are headed for the floor, at this point I would not even try to guess the ultimate outcome. In that sense it’s a tableflip, and I still don’t see a point in constructing a scenario for that find a different game.Īnd as I have said in the previous post, if somebody wants a war, they will get it… and now there is one, and it will be a disaster for all concerned. I maintain though, that a 2022 scenario for this game would have been out of place anyway, for an overt invasion of Ukraine on this scale and extent is an admission that the other two sub-games have been lost, and in this case perhaps not even seriously played. Why I am not writing a 2022 scenario for Ukrainian Crisis
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